Has the Music Festival Bubble Finally, For Real, Burst?

[Tweet]

As of this post (3:30-ish PM), Lollapalooza is still selling general admission tickets. I believe this is the slowest sell since 2011, when it sold out completely for the first time.

Given that every important, and several unimportant, cities have their own festival at this point, I figure it's worth its own thread and having the debate: are festivals over? It sure feels like it this year.

I wrote a college senior research on this a few years ago, and when I have more time and less work obligations tomorrow I'll be writing some stuff on the following topics:

-Lineup regurgitation
-The glut of festivals
-The price in combination of both of those things
-Millenials vs. gen Z vs. the olds (sorry, olds)
-Security (is that backpack thing with Lolla for real?)
- Maybe some other stuff

Get your takes out, folks. Really, genuinely curious to see what y'all think and hopefully have an actual conversation about all of this.

[nanatod]

the only festival that's good anymore is riot fest.

[thebosma]

I don’t think this indicates the festival bubble bursting when a fest takes a few hours longer to sell out, especially after a price increase and on their third year of what ends up being a pretty exhausting weekend with 4 days. A lot of people expect to see a lineup before they buy tickets, and it seems like a lot of people are going to be able to do just that tomorrow. The bubble bursting would be tickets being available at the gate at a reduced cost and still struggling to sell out days. The youths are attending things like spring awakening, and I think the crowd might just skew a bit older this year. All in all I think this is probably better for the image of the fest and will make it much more enjoyable.

[facts]

I think today's proceedings are less tied to a bubble bursting or not and more an awareness and acknowledgement that tickets can be had at face value or less come August. I think it's a market acting rationally. I think LN kept testing what the largest amount of days and $ they could get away with selling blind - and they have their answer. We shouldn't shed any tears - we should celebrate the theorem they've solved

[concertgoer]

Until major festivals start cancelling or we stop seeing the creation of new festivals I’m voting no. If anything I think we’ve become like Europe where festivals are very prominent, but most do not sellout quickly.

[Xamnam]

If a bubble is bursting, we'll see it affecting Coachella.

[concertgoer]

Coachella did take a little longer to sellout during their presale compared to other years. Would have been curious to see how long it would have taken if it wasn’t advertised that Beyoncé was coming back.

[concertgoer]

I think people are making a mistake when they equate a festival not instantly selling out to an overall bubble bursting.

[andrewvb]

seems to have been less buzz around the ticket onsale as well. i feel like lolla probably spent less marketing it too? seeing what they can get away with.

once people see bruno mars is headlining lollapalooza it will sell.

[facts]

Would love if they put Bruno one days on sale tomorrow with little advance notice. It's like free money

[sick2b]

I think the era of outstanding lineups is long gone.

Each year seems to be more and more some-perma recycling of the same bands --at the levels of the headliners and subs at least

[cosmo]

I told my wife a few years ago that I would consider not going to Lolla if it stopped being fun. I'm still going this year and I think it will be a lot of fun.

[raylan]

I don't think the bubble has burst.

I bet it would be sold out if people weren't ambushed by the extra $37 in fees.

It probably would've sold out as quick as last year if it was $350.

[Deleted]

lolla having slower ticket movement after being noticeably more expensive this year and a mediocre lineup last year and people expressly not liking the 4 day format for 2 years in a row is hardly groundbreaking.
it's slightly surprising that they lasted this long but it's just indicative of how many big missteps they and the city have made lately. same can be said of bonnaroo since 2015.

doesn't seem to be affecting most other fests much -- we're seeing more and more small to mid sized fests pop up every year across the country, many of which are more geared towards an actual identity or genre or aesthetic rather than just "top indie rock and pop acts of the month in a big city with a large suburban college kid population"


i still dont think the term "bubble bursting" has any real meaning whatsoever and is some dumb trope we invented to look forward to the day where we can see our favorite bands without 'casual fans' around -- but i dont think it's ever gonna happen. at best it'll morph and change and maybe fests will just get more expensive or targeted and then in a decade, the general masses pay less attention and we all just go to p4k or d4n or eaux claire sized stuff again. but by then we'll be so old and jaded that we'll hate every lineup even more than we do now.

[llamaoftime]

It's getting closer and closer but honestly until I see one of the big ones (Coachella, Lolla, Roo, ACL, even Outside Lands) go under or significantly downsize I definitely would not say its burst.

[Deleted]

In the world of sales, one of two things happen:

1) You price something too cheap

2) You price something too expensive

They did the latter. If it continues to sell slow, prices will be dropped next year or more acts of note will be added. I do not immediately toss out the idea of returning to three days, especially if the costs outweigh the rewards. Even suburban teens credit cards (via their parents) have their limits.

[neader]

has the joke been made yet that it's selling horribly due to protests/lack of awareness because they got rid of the board?

[raylan]

Mar 22, 2018 15:08:41 GMT -6 @audiobully said:

In the world of sales, one of two things happen:

1) You price something too cheap

2) You price something too expensive

They did the latter. If it continues to sell slow, prices will be dropped next year or more acts of note will be added. I do not immediately toss out the idea of returning to three days, especially if the costs outweigh the rewards. Even suburban teens credit cards (via their parents) have their limits.

I still am of the opinion that without the extra $37 for that Chicago Amusement Tax it would've sold quicker.

Now, they are going to have to wait until June to release Single Days and be looking at a situation where the 4-days aren't sold out.

At 387 off the gun, there isn't enough meat on the bone for the scalpers.

And, people don't seem to be very excited about the overall lineup.

[facts]

The scalpers definitely sat out the original onsale.

Its still pretty amazing to me because you couldn't get in the door for under $200 to any of the 3 Bruno shows at the UC last year, but people have been thoroughly trained to expect below face tickets on resale by July.

[jimmyrecard]

Mar 22, 2018 12:51:00 GMT -6 llamaoftime said:

It's getting closer and closer but honestly until I see one of the big ones (Coachella, Lolla, Roo, ACL, even Outside Lands) go under or significantly downsize I definitely would not say its burst.

I disagree with this.  The major ones can all survive, they all have their places and regions and used to all have semi-unique lineups.  There have always been that many major festivals around.  It's all the filler stuff in between, with every city having a mid-level lineup with the same LiveNation or AEG acts top-to-bottom, and some cities having multiple festivals. 

Having said all this, if a 'major' festival is going to fail, my guess is it will be Firefly.  Their lineups are the least inspiring of all the big fests, ticket sales always have seemed slow (except the year with Sir Paul), and it is servicing the East coast which has no shortage of festivals, while every tour always has stops in those markets. 

[Kamera]

Mar 22, 2018 15:22:39 GMT -6 neader said:

has the joke been made yet that it's selling horribly due to protests/lack of awareness because they got rid of the board?

Please someone make a post on the Lolla reddit

[Deleted]

Mar 22, 2018 18:37:54 GMT -6 raylan said:

Mar 22, 2018 15:08:41 GMT -6 @audiobully said:

In the world of sales, one of two things happen:

1) You price something too cheap

2) You price something too expensive

They did the latter. If it continues to sell slow, prices will be dropped next year or more acts of note will be added. I do not immediately toss out the idea of returning to three days, especially if the costs outweigh the rewards. Even suburban teens credit cards (via their parents) have their limits.

I still am of the opinion that without the extra $37 for that Chicago Amusement Tax it would've sold quicker.

Now, they are going to have to wait until June to release Single Days and be looking at a situation where the 4-days aren't sold out.

At 387 off the gun, there isn't enough meat on the bone for the scalpers.

And, people don't seem to be very excited about the overall lineup.

Absolutely yes. They kept raising and raising the price until the regulars finally hit their "too expensive" point.