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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2017 15:30:29 GMT -6
And he's an old second year player. It'd be great if he takes a great leap, but the Bulls roster is full of disappointing point guards that the team took a chance on for some reason.
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Post by dij22 on Jun 28, 2017 15:30:55 GMT -6
Also Dunn was the 5th overall pick and Butler was the 30th (on a stacked team)
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Post by Blue42 on Jun 28, 2017 20:25:05 GMT -6
I think Dunn's ceiling is basically what Marcus Smart is right now. So yeah, he's probably going to be in the league for a while but I don't think you ever want him starting for you.
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Post by dij22 on Jun 28, 2017 20:31:25 GMT -6
I'd be thrilled if he was Marcus Smart but I think he's Marquis Teague
EDIT: Whoa Kris Dunn is only 13 months younger than Marquis Teague.
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Post by teekoh on Jun 29, 2017 8:16:43 GMT -6
Ugh.
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Post by cardi bqtrain on Jun 29, 2017 8:23:56 GMT -6
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Post by teekoh on Jun 29, 2017 8:33:12 GMT -6
No, sorry. Just a further reaction to the Kris Dunn/Teague situation. I realized after I posted that I should've quoted dij's post in mine.
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Post by llamaoftime on Jun 29, 2017 9:02:56 GMT -6
while I'm on that prediction fire I want to say that I'm pretty confident the Rockets are going to bring in one more big player and make a big 3* with CP3 and Harden
*- is paul milsap good enough to be counted as part of a big 3? hes one of the potential options im thinking
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2017 9:10:29 GMT -6
Butler didn't hardly play his rookie year and Dunn was on the floor a ton. He sucked. Even with factoring in potential, his ceiling is average. For comparison: Butler's Rookie Season- 8.5mpg 2.6ppg 40%fg 18.2%3pt 1.3rpg 0.3apg 0.3spg Dunn's Rookie Season- 17.1mpg 3.8ppg 37.7%fg 28.8% 3pt 2.1rpg 2.4apg 1spg
If you doubled Butler's numbers to match the minutes:
5.2ppf 2.6rpg 0.6apg 0.6spg
I get that one went 5 versus one going 30 but JEFF (not Marquis) Teague was pretty bad his first two seasons before becoming a decent starting point guard (top 10 in assists 4 of the past 5 seasons and one all star selection). Kemba started off poorly as well, although garnering more minutes his rookie year than Dunn.
Also, Butler was the same age as Dunn their rookie seasons. Butler took huge leaps moving forward and I hope Dunn does as well. Granted, that is far from guaranteed but again I just want two of the three players they acquired to end up good. I consider that a win. |
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Post by thombjorke on Jun 29, 2017 9:17:24 GMT -6
Win shares per 48 minutes in their first season (league average is 0.100):
Jimmy Butler: 0.144
Kris Dunn: 0.004
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Post by dij22 on Jun 29, 2017 9:18:14 GMT -6
Comparing Butler's rookie season to Dunn's rookie season is incomprehensibly pointless.
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Post by cardi bqtrain on Jun 29, 2017 9:30:30 GMT -6
The main thing I saw that makes Dunn's rookie season seem problematic is that he was last in the league last season in true shooting percentage. Probably not a good sign for a developing point guard in the Golden State era of lets chuck all the 3 pointers
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Post by dij22 on Jun 29, 2017 9:31:51 GMT -6
Just for shits, here is every point guard taken in the top 5 since the Point God draft of 2005
2016: Kris Dunn
2015: D'Angelo Russell
2014: Dante Exum
2011: Kyrie Irving
2009: Ricky Rubio
2008: Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook
2007: Mike Conley
2005: Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Raymond Felton
While Rubio has been a disappointment, Ray Felton is the only true bust on that list from 2005-2011. When you draft a PG in the top 5, you have to expect a franchise altering centerpiece. I agree that Kris Dunn can turn it around, but if you are acknowledging that his ceiling has been lowered to "maybe he can become a Jeff Teague/Kemba Walker type", then you have to acknowledge that it was a shit trade.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2017 9:36:22 GMT -6
Bulls current management has a very bad history of talent evaluation of young point guards, so I don't really have much confidence in Dunn. But hey, hope he surprises me.
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Post by thombjorke on Jun 29, 2017 9:42:56 GMT -6
Just for shits, here is every point guard taken in the top 5 since the Point God draft of 2005 2016: Kris Dunn 2015: D'Angelo Russell 2014: Dante Exum 2011: Kyrie Irving 2009: Ricky Rubio 2008: Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook 2007: Mike Conley 2005: Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Raymond Felton While Rubio has been a disappointment, Ray Felton is the only true bust on that list from 2005-2011. When you draft a PG in the top 5, you have to expect a franchise altering centerpiece. I agree that Kris Dunn can turn it around, but if you are acknowledging that his ceiling has been lowered to " maybe he can become a Jeff Teague/Kemba Walker type", then you have to acknowledge that it was a shit trade. I'd definitely say that Dunn's ceiling is lower than "a Kemba Walker type." |
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Post by cardi bqtrain on Jun 29, 2017 9:58:18 GMT -6
I'm not too worried about Dunn because Garpax has been hedging their bets and they also picked up this guy. Look at those D league highlights from March of last year
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2017 10:00:58 GMT -6
I completely agree that garpax blow at talent evaluation. Isn't it usually the exception versus the rule when PGs immediately are great in the NBA? I remember that discussion on WSCR after the trade that it's normal for them to need a year or two to adjust.
Also, my point isn't that the trade is good because Dunn should turn out fine so yay! It's that it's POSSIBLE and all I would like from the trade is two of the three to end up good/very good. Not great, but good. If the injury doesn't ruin his entire career (and it shouldn't) LeVine's a pretty nice piece IF they can re-sign the guy (that right there is my biggest red flag of the trade). And I like the draft pick. Anything outside of a multiple year college starter is a pleasant surprise for the Bulls.
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Post by dij22 on Jun 29, 2017 10:19:04 GMT -6
Just for shits, here is every point guard taken in the top 5 since the Point God draft of 2005 2016: Kris Dunn 2015: D'Angelo Russell 2014: Dante Exum 2011: Kyrie Irving 2009: Ricky Rubio 2008: Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook 2007: Mike Conley 2005: Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Raymond Felton While Rubio has been a disappointment, Ray Felton is the only true bust on that list from 2005-2011. When you draft a PG in the top 5, you have to expect a franchise altering centerpiece. I agree that Kris Dunn can turn it around, but if you are acknowledging that his ceiling has been lowered to " maybe he can become a Jeff Teague/Kemba Walker type", then you have to acknowledge that it was a shit trade. I'd definitely say that Dunn's ceiling is lower than "a Kemba Walker type." Oh no question. But I think even saying Kris Dunn's ceiling is maybe he can take 5 years to develop into the PG of a 35-win team is super depressing. |
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Post by dij22 on Jun 29, 2017 10:24:45 GMT -6
If the injury doesn't ruin his entire career (and it shouldn't) LeVine's a pretty nice piece IF they can re-sign the guy (that right there is my biggest red flag of the trade). That's another issue I have with the trade. They have to give Lavine a max extension that will pay him as much as they were paying Jimmy Butler. So the Bulls can either max out an average player coming off an ACL injury, or they can lose him for nothing. Either option sucks. |
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Post by cardi bqtrain on Jun 29, 2017 10:29:37 GMT -6
If the injury doesn't ruin his entire career (and it shouldn't) LeVine's a pretty nice piece IF they can re-sign the guy (that right there is my biggest red flag of the trade). That's another issue I have with the trade. They have to give Lavine a max extension that will pay him as much as they were paying Jimmy Butler. So the Bulls can either max out an average player coming off an ACL injury, or they can lose him for nothing. Either option sucks. yeah that's my main issue with Lavine being the centerpiece of the deal. I don't even think they really have a choice in resigning him because otherwise this trade looks like a total bust. If he doesn't look good in the half season they get to watch him, it can just be blamed on him recovering. They basically committed a $100 million contract to a player recovering from an ACL injury the day they traded for him. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2017 12:45:52 GMT -6
Do we all think he's going to get a max deal? Maybe he'll do something closer to what Chandler Parsons did last season (4yrs/94 million). He'd only be like 26 next free agency if he did that and could then very easily max out if he proves himself. Here's a nice link to all the deals from 2016 (because FA hasn't started quite yet, right?): www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/30/12052290/nba-free-agent-signings-tracker-2016-rumors |
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Post by thombjorke on Jun 29, 2017 12:56:38 GMT -6
That Chandler Parsons contract was a max deal. And yes, Lavine will get one unless he tears his ACL a second time.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2017 12:59:00 GMT -6
I forget how tiered max deals are in the NBA. You should look at the new list of max deals that will be available moving forward. I think one is like 40+ per year if in 2022 you've played 15 years in the NBA and 10 with the same team.
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Post by teekoh on Jun 30, 2017 15:21:46 GMT -6
The Bulls waived Rondo and Canaan.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2017 15:23:47 GMT -6
They're also apparently one of the teams looking into a PG from Serbia.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2017 15:26:11 GMT -6
Oh Rajon.
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Post by Blue42 on Jun 30, 2017 15:38:05 GMT -6
Ricky Rubio to the Jazz for the 2018 OKC 1st rounder they acquired in the Enes Kanter deal.
Word is Minnesota wants Jeff Teague but they might try to get in on Lowry as well.
Such a good move for the Jazz and Rubio is a great fit for what they need from that position.
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Post by cardi bqtrain on Jun 30, 2017 16:09:43 GMT -6
oh wow, Thibs made the trade that the Bulls should have made for Taj Gibson. he basically came back as coach/gm to show the world that he can do Garpax's job better than them
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Post by dij22 on Jun 30, 2017 17:54:54 GMT -6
Ricky Rubio to the Jazz for the 2018 OKC 1st rounder they acquired in the Enes Kanter deal. Word is Minnesota wants Jeff Teague but they might try to get in on Lowry as well. Such a good move for the Jazz and Rubio is a great fit for what they need from that position. Lowry makes a ton of sense for them. That would be an awesome team. |
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Post by Blue42 on Jun 30, 2017 18:34:02 GMT -6
Posting here only because I just spent way too much time on this. Here are my free agency predictions:
Point Guards:
Stephen Curry returns to the Warriors on a 5-year max deal worth around $200 mil.
Jrue Holiday stays in New Orleans. Loyalty still matters. And a 5-year max deal (worth around $170) doesn't hurt. They also bring in Justin Holiday as a favor to Jrue.
Kyle Lowry to Minnesota. Toronto doesn't offer the full 5-year max and Jimmy convinces Lowry to join the resistance. 4 years, $110 million.
Jeff Teague stays in Indiana on a 4-year, $80 million deal.
George Hill to San Antonio for way less than he could've made in Utah if he signed the 4-year, $80 million extension they offered him last season.
Milos Teodosic to Chicago. They won't win this year, but he could at least help make them somewhat watchable. Dunn isn't ready to start and it isn't good for anyone if they just throw him into the fire. 2-year deal worth $25 million.
Derrick Rose to the Clippers. They'll offer him a chance to "compete" for a starting spot, which is more than any other team is willing to offer. 2 year deal with a team option on the second year, worth around $24 mil.
Patty Mills to New York. They need a bridge point guard to Frank Ntilikina. 3 year deal in the $35 million range.
Rajon Rondo to New Orleans in a bench role that reunites him with Boogie Cousins. With the Bulls still paying him $3 million, he's willing to play for the veteran exception.
Wings:
Kevin Durant signs another 1+1 contract with Golden State, probably after giving the Warriors a few weeks to figure out the rest of their cap situation.
Gordon Hayward stays in Utah. 5-year max deal with a player option on the 5th year.
Danillo Gallinari to Sacramento because they have to pay someone, right? 4 years, $65 million.
Andre Igoudala to Phily. They offer the most money and he's great as a bench vet who can also help if they're able to get into the playoffs in the next 2-3 years. 3 years, $60 million.
J.J. Redick to Brooklyn. They can pay him the most and he already owns a home in Brooklyn. Hipsters rejoice. 3 years, $56 million.
Bigs:
Blake Griffin stays with the Clippers on a 5-year max.
Paul Millsap to Denver. 4-year max deal.
Serge Ibaka stays in Toronto. 4 years, $80 mil.
Taj Gibson joins the Timberwolves as their third big because that's what's best for my heart. 2 years, $30 million.
Dwayne Dedmon joins the Warriors as this year's version of their annually rotating starting center.
Restricted guys:
Otto Porter stays in Washington on a max deal.
Nerlens Noel stays in Dallas for the max.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope receives multiple max offers from rebuilding teams (Nets, Philly, Dallas), but Detroit ultimately matches.
Joe Ingles returns to Utah. 3 years, $40 million.
Jonathon Simmons gets an offer from Atlanta that the Spurs decline to match.
Nikola Mirotic goes to Miami, Spo turns him into a pretty good compliment to Whiteside and he gets a ton of open 3-point opportunities from Dragic.
Tony Snell returns to Milwaukee.
I think this takes care of most of the big fish.
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